Saturday, July 6, 2024

Remnants of Hurricane Beryl May Increase Our Rain Chances Midweek

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 90, Low 69): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 92, Low 71): Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially in the evening. A few storms could become severe, and locally heavy rainfall is possible where showers/storms occur. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 86, Low 72): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms.

Thursday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Friday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 93, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 91, Low 79): Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. High rip current risk. 

Monday (High 91, Low 78): Partly to mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 90, Low 79): Partly to mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday through Saturday (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 92, Mínima 71): Mayormente nublado con posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas, especialmente por la noche. Algunas tormentas podrían volverse severas y es posible que se produzcan lluvias intensas a nivel local donde se produzcan aguaceros/tormentas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 86, Mínima 72): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Jueves (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 91, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 93, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 91, Mínima 79): Mayormente nublado con numerosas lluvias y tormentas eléctricas posibles. Alto riesgo de corrientes de resaca.

Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 78): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosas lluvias y tormentas.

Martes (Máxima 90, Mínima 79): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosas lluvias y tormentas.

De Miércoles a Sábado (Máximas en los 90 grados inferiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

DISCUSSION:






Skies have been partly to mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today. We've had some rain around, but it was mostly down in Central Alabama, along the stalled front that is still waffling North and South at times. Looks like our High for Cullman is 88, and the Low was 73 this morning. It is currently 91 in Jasper, which may be the High there, had a Low of 75 this morning. Haleyville saw a High of 86 and Low of 74. The High in Huntsville was 92 and a Low of 77. So if you've thought it felt muggy at night lately, you're right. It is 90 degrees in Nashville as of 4:30 PM, and it looks like that may be the High, had a Low of 72 this morning. 






Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen back to a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the coast of Texas. The areas most likely to feel hurricane impacts are under a Hurricane Warning down there, as noted in detail in the post previous to this one. And to either side, some other places are under a Tropical Storm Warning, where the winds are expected to stay lighter, which here only means under 74 miles per hour. 

The reason I'm showing this up front is that as you can see, the cone of uncertainty shows the post-tropical low maybe bringing some showers and thunderstorms to parts of North Alabama or to Tennessee. 



Tomorrow looks like a pretty typical July day around here, at least early July, with a High near 90, Low of about 69-70. The slightly drier air for the moment may cause the Low temperature to dip into the upper 60's tomorrow morning. Mix of sun and clouds, chance of rain only the minimal 20%. 



Then Monday looks basically the same, High about 90 or so, Low about 70 or so, 20% chance of rain or a thunderstorm. I don't buy the GFS keeping us more dry than is realistic here. Have to second-guess it this time of year. We're on the wrong side of that tropical cyclone to get a surge of dry air anyway, even if it was closer. 



On Tuesday an upper level through will steer the remnants of the hurricane in our general direction. They may be fairly broad and disorganized by this time. Will increase rain chance to 40% even though the exact track and impact of the remnants is far from certain. The High should still be near 90, Low near 70. 



On Wednesday it looks like a 50/50 shot of rain and thunderstorms. And by the way, we do have to monitor for the potential of any rotating storms, probably late Tuesday into the day Wednesday, as you always do with a dying tropical system or its remnants. So an isolated storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts or even a tornado can't be ruled out here. The risk of something like that is very low, so may not mention above in the official forecast. Just a reminder for those of you who take time to read these discussions. Looks like a High in the mid-to-upper-80's and a Low in the lower 70's. 




Then on Thursday the rain chances start tapering back to normal levels, rain chance of 30%. High should be in upper 80's or near 90, Low of about 70. 



Then basically the same for Friday except only a 20% chance of rain and High might get up to 91-92. 



Not much change Saturday, still a 20% chance of rain and similar temperatures. 



Not going to do a 10-Day-Forecast this time, but if you'd like to speculate on next Sunday into the following week, looks like rain chances staying minimal, about 20% (or maybe less for Sunday and Monday, close call there, definitely would include a 20% chance for Tuesday) and the Highs being more toward mid-90's, Lows in lower 70's. 


Rainfall amounts should stay light around here except for places that do get any heavier showers or storms. Even with tropical remnants, that gets pretty random this time of year. The heavier rains from the hurricane/its remnants will be in Eastern Texas through Arkansas, some pretty heavy rains in Louisiana too. 

Just on the chance that anybody gets a Tornado Warning or a Severe Thunderstorm Warning late Tuesday or Wednesday, remember the basic idea: Get into a small central room or hallway, away from any windows, on the lowest floor of a sturdy house, rather than staying in a mobile home. You're much more likely to get a regular rain shower or thunderstorm out of these remnants though. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

July Heat Returns Shortly . . .

FORECAST: Friday (High 94, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, hot in the afternoon.  Saturday (High 96, Low 69): Partly to mostly s...