Saturday, February 15, 2025

Tornado Watch (TN)




 7:03 PM - Looks like we have a drastically updated convective outlook now also. 


The Enhanced Level 3/5 Risk now covers nearly all of Alabama. Where earlier today, it only clipped Northwest Alabama. As noted in their discussion, SPC coordinated this decision with NWS Birmingham. Kudos to the coordination efforts. 

Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the
   Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime
   should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths,
   yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat
   for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have
   expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving
   QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN
   Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity.

Just going to focus on our local TN Valley for the outlines of specific hazards though, since we're only a couple hours away from the event unfolding for Northwest Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee. Tennessee already has a couple Tornado Watches in effect, one of which was the original basis for this post. 



So nearly all of us now have the enhanced 30% risk for damaging winds in thunderstorms (this is going to be a squall line event), with far Northeast Alabama only having the basic 15% risk in places like Scottsboro and Fort Payne. 

The chance for severe hail is not enough to worry about around here. 


Most of us still have that standard 5% risk for isolated tornadoes within the squall line. If you notice the hatching, showing a more significant tornado risk, has disappeared, you would still see it on the national map, for mainly Southern Mississippi into Southwest Alabama, best I recall. Not really expecting discrete supercells with this, just the possibility of supercells within a squall line, more common to see with these kinds of setups. The 10% tornado risk does now include places like Jasper, Double Springs, Haleyville, back to Hamiltion and up to near Russellville and Muscle Shoals. It includes Waynesboro. 

So without getting too hung up on details, Northwest Alabama does have a slightly higher chance of tornadoes within this squall line than the rest of North Alabama/Tennessee. 


This is basically just going to be a cold-season squall line with potential for a few tornadoes as well as the threat for damaging thunderstorm winds. We'll have to watch it as it nears the Alabama state line. It should be there about 9-10 PM. 

7:37 PM - Just saw a note where tonight, the NWS Birmingham is asking people to treat Severe Thunderstorm Warnings the same as Tornado Warnings and seek shelter, don't fool around with them. 

And I think they're right. This squall line is going to be dangerous whether it produces straight-line winds or a tornado for a specific area. Maybe a tornado is more dangerous, but I'd play it safe tonight. 

If you go under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, I'd get into a small central room (away from any windows of course) on the lowest floor of a sturdy house or other strong building, not a mobile home. And if you can, cover your body with something, especially your head. A lot of the loss of life we have even from bigger tornado events comes from injuries to people's heads and necks. If you've got some kind of safety helmet, like from playing football or riding a bike, might consider putting that in your shelter area ahead of time. And if you go under a warning, you can get to shelter and put that on. If you don't have that, a pillow, some blankets can be good for shielding body from any debris that could fall into the house or go flying around if a window breaks out. 

A lot of these precautions would protect you even if a tree were to fall into your home. Like if you're in a small bathroom, those walls are less likely to collapse than the living room walls even if a tree falls on the place. And if you're wearing a helmet, then even if the tree were to fall all the way in, maybe you'd avoid serious injury. 

And I hate to imagine all these worst-case scenarios. But I'm kind of walking through them with the attitude that an ounce of prevention beforehand is so much better than . . . you know, better safe than sorry sometimes. 

And by the way, it will be a lot easier for trees to fall right now, as much rain as we've had lately, saturating the soil. 


7:52 - The squall line continues to prompt Tornado Warnings well to our West as well as Severe Thunderstorm Warnings at other times. It's tough to confirm damage at night in situations like this, might not hear about it until daylight, so it's important to treat all warnings seriously, and not wait on a confirmation. This is Saturday night, and this line of storms is moving fast with a lot of heavy rain that would make a tornado just about impossible to see. And as much as I love dual-pol radar, that new product called the correlation coefficient (well we've had it for about 10 years or so now, but a lot of people still aren't too familiar with it, general public), it is not perfect. Tornadoes still get missed in real-time. A tornado hit Athens around the end of December, I believe it was, and it came out of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning late at night. 

Anybody who bothered to read that Severe Thunderstorm Warning would have seen a tag that said "TORNADO: POSSIBLE". And that's why I say, take all warnings seriously enough tonight to get to a reasonably safe place. 

If you think it's overkill to take tornado precautions for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, I'd still encourage you to be inside, away from windows. And it's better if you're down on the ground floor, not up on a top floor, especially if you've got trees around. 

Most people in Athens probably did not go to their tornado shelter that night, and fortunately, nobody got hurt. Even though there was a good bit of damage. 

7:58 - Even after what I said about damage being hard to confirm at night, I saw a report from far Northern Tennessee where a house had shingles blown off and some one-inch diameter tree limbs were broken off. 

SEL9


Like NWS Huntsville notes, the main issue with this system is going to be that it's happening at night. And I'll add, Saturday night is just not a great time. But we've had a lot worse than this before. We had a tornado outbreak in February 2008 that's usually called the "Super Tuesday" outbreak where there were two F-4 tornadoes in North Alabama and I think an F-3 that came close to hitting Nashville but lifted. That was a classic supercell outbreak in the middle of the night. This is "only" a squall line, but like I've said, it doesn't take a major tornado outbreak to cause some problems if people are caught off guard. 

The issues I see tonight are not going to be that people weren't given warning or that they couldn't get to shelter. If anybody gets hurt tonight, it'll probably be because they didn't know the proper way to get the warning that was issued (cell phones don't usually alert for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, and a lot of people may disable emergency alerts on their phones anyway, so wouldn't get Tornado Warnings) or because they didn't think it was a big enough deal to actually get to that safer place in their home. Or to leave a mobile home ahead of the line of storms to go stay with someone with a sturdier house . . . or go to a public shelter. 

Hopefully we get by without any serious issues like that from this setup, but after what happened in East TN within the past month, I'm feeling a little extra on guard. 

8:22 PM - And since the squall line appears to be calming down somewhat at the moment, only one severe thunderstorm warning up there in Tennessee (which does include Natchez Trace State Forest and also carries a tag that a tornado is possible - so folks up there, hope they are in a safe place, in that warning polygon) . . . I also don't want to be overly alarmist here. 

Not every single point along this squall line is going to produce severe thunderstorm winds or of course not everywhere is going to see a tornado try to spin up. It's just that if and when you come under a warning polygon tonight, you need to take it seriously and act fast. Be able to get to your shelter in five minutes, preferably sooner than five minutes. Whoever does get a damaging wind event out of this, or perhaps a tornado, those people need to be in a reasonably safe place. Nobody needs to try to ride out these warnings in a mobile home. They need to plan to go to a safer shelter before the storms get there. And best case scenario, that's a family member or a close friend who offers a sturdy house or if you're super lucky, maybe even has an old storm pit. 

It's sort of a judgement call with mobile homes and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, but if you have a public shelter near you open tonight, then if there's a severe thunderstorm warning a county or two West of you, I'd go ahead and go to that shelter before the squall line gets to you. To be on the safe side. If you don't have a better emergency plan, like a friend or relative with a sturdy house or a private shelter. I just don't trust this setup tonight, where wind damage is going to be easier because of trees being able to fall in the saturated soil, plus we do have some risk for tornadoes. And it can be tough to tell sometimes whether the rotation at night is producing a tornado or just straight-line winds down at the surface. We have a lot more clues than we used to, but I think back to the recent Athens tornado. People needed to take shelter for that Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Fortunately nobody was in the book store that got damaged since it was after hours. 

There's a handy link if you want to report severe weather to the Weather Service in Huntsville. Of course, as they say, safety first, wait until you're definitely going to be okay before you go trying to get a video you hope will "go viral". 

And of course I don't mind if you send me a report. But I'd pass it along to them and maybe a few broadcast meteorologists I like better than others. Nah, I'd probably just send it to them. I like seeing official NWS storm survey pages updated with good pictures (or video) and lots of information more than I like seeing that stuff on the news.   

Another bonus to reporting to the government is that they won't share your info with the media without permission. So if you'd rather not have people with cameras running up and filming you after you've had storm damage, the National Weather Service personnel believe in respecting your privacy. Can't say that about all the news channels, but some of them do practice good ethics. So I'll mention that to be fair to the reporters and teams who do. 

8:38 - Looks like the wind advisory has been extended to 9 AM. Ho hum . . . 

8:45 - "Our" tornado watch that includes North Alabama is imminent now. Now going to start a new post for that with the mesoscale discussion. 

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   Tornado Watch Number 9

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   640 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025


   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a


   * Tornado Watch for portions of 

     South Central Kentucky

     Middle Tennessee


   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 640 PM

     until 100 AM CST.


   * Primary threats include...

     A few tornadoes possible

     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible


   SUMMARY...Fast-moving thunderstorms over west Tennessee will track

   into the watch area this evening, posing a risk of locally damaging

   wind gusts and a few tornadoes.


   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles

   north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of Clarksville TN

   to 70 miles east of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of

   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS

   WOU9).


 WOUS64 KWNS 160035

   WOU9


   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 9

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   640 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025


   TORNADO WATCH 9 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE

    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


   KYC001-003-009-031-035-045-047-053-057-061-085-087-099-141-169-

   171-177-183-207-213-217-219-221-227-160700-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.250216T0040Z-250216T0700Z/


   KY 

   .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


   ADAIR                ALLEN               BARREN              

   BUTLER               CALLOWAY            CASEY               

   CHRISTIAN            CLINTON             CUMBERLAND          

   EDMONSON             GRAYSON             GREEN               

   HART                 LOGAN               METCALFE            

   MONROE               MUHLENBERG          OHIO                

   RUSSELL              SIMPSON             TAYLOR              

   TODD                 TRIGG               WARREN              



   TNC021-027-037-043-055-081-083-085-087-099-101-111-117-119-125-

   135-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-160700-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.250216T0040Z-250216T0700Z/


   TN 

   .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


   CHEATHAM             CLAY                DAVIDSON            

   DICKSON              GILES               HICKMAN             

   HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           JACKSON             

   LAWRENCE             LEWIS               MACON               

   MARSHALL             MAURY               MONTGOMERY          

   PERRY                ROBERTSON           RUTHERFORD          

   SMITH                STEWART             SUMNER              

   TROUSDALE            WAYNE               WILLIAMSON          

   WILSON               



   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...





   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

   and possible warnings.


   &&


   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...


   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail

   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind

   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean

   storm motion vector 24035.


   ...Hart


WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 8

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

640 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025


MSC009-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-139-143-161-TNC005-017-023-

033-047-053-069-075-077-079-097-109-113-157-167-183-160400-

/O.CON.KMEG.TO.A.0008.000000T0000Z-250216T0400Z/


TORNADO WATCH 8 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR

THE FOLLOWING AREAS


IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES


IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI


BENTON                COAHOMA               DESOTO

LAFAYETTE             MARSHALL              PANOLA

QUITMAN               TALLAHATCHIE          TATE

TIPPAH                TUNICA                YALOBUSHA


IN TENNESSEE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES


IN WEST TENNESSEE


BENTON                CARROLL               CHESTER

CROCKETT              FAYETTE               GIBSON

HARDEMAN              HAYWOOD               HENDERSON

HENRY                 LAUDERDALE            MADISON

MCNAIRY               SHELBY                TIPTON

WEAKLEY


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALAMO, ASHLAND, BARTLETT, BATESVILLE,

BOLIVAR, BROWNSVILLE, CAMDEN, CHARLESTON, CLARKSDALE,

COFFEEVILLE, COLLIERVILLE, COVINGTON, DRESDEN, GERMANTOWN,

HENDERSON, HOLLY SPRINGS, HUMBOLDT, HUNTINGDON, JACKSON,

LEXINGTON, MARKS, MARTIN, MEMPHIS, MILAN, MILLINGTON, OAKLAND,

OLIVE BRANCH, OXFORD, PARIS, RIPLEY MS, RIPLEY TN, SELMER,

SENATOBIA, SOMERVILLE, SOUTHAVEN, TUNICA, AND WATER VALLEY.


$$

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 8

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

640 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025


MSC003-013-115-117-145-TNC039-071-160400-

/O.EXA.KMEG.TO.A.0008.000000T0000Z-250216T0400Z/


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 8 TO

INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING


IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES


IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI


ALCORN                CALHOUN               PONTOTOC

PRENTISS              UNION


IN TENNESSEE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES


IN WEST TENNESSEE


DECATUR               HARDIN


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BOONEVILLE, BRUCE, CALHOUN CITY,

CORINTH, DECATURVILLE, NEW ALBANY, PARSONS, PONTOTOC,

AND SAVANNAH.


$$

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 9

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

640 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025


TORNADO WATCH 9 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE

 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


TNC021-027-037-043-055-081-083-085-087-099-101-111-117-119-125-

135-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-160700-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.250216T0040Z-250216T0700Z/


TN

.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


CHEATHAM             CLAY                DAVIDSON

DICKSON              GILES               HICKMAN

HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           JACKSON

LAWRENCE             LEWIS               MACON

MARSHALL             MAURY               MONTGOMERY

PERRY                ROBERTSON           RUTHERFORD

SMITH                STEWART             SUMNER

TROUSDALE            WAYNE               WILLIAMSON

WILSON

$$



ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

at
Labels:

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

New Tornado Warning Winston/Cullman Counties

 This new circulation North of Addison . . . warning does not include city of Cullman this time but does include West Point, Falkville, up t...