Tornado Watch

Here we go. That squall line is approaching Northwest Alabama. Let's see what it does. 

The 6 PM soundings for Birmingham and Jackson (MS) both show a capping inversion. Jackson has a lot of unstable air, 1300 joules of surface-based CAPE, which is pretty decent even if it was springtime. Along with SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 at 3 km, over 150 units at lowest kilometer. That setup supports damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes over in Mississippi. But some of that is going to translate over to the Alabama side. 

Nashville's sounding this evening didn't show a cap. But they have severe thunderstorm potential up there too and have had numerous warnings already in Western Tennessee. Nashville is currently under a Tornado Watch - were under one sooner than we were down here. 

9:28 PM - Jasper and Gadsden have a dewpoint of 64. Huntsville has a dewpoint of 60. Up in Tennessee, dewpoints are generally still in the 50's. You get into the 60-65 range with wind fields and lift like we have tonight, you can definitely get severe weather. 

9:32 - Looks like the computer models were right in predicting very limited instability and way more than enough wind shear/low-level helicity. 

9:46 - And we have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning over in Northeast Mississippi for a storm in the line affecting Calhoun, Chickasaw, and Pontotoc Counties. Pontotoc and Trace State Park among many other small towns are included in the path of this storm, which is capable of 60 mph wind gusts and nickel-sized hail. The warning was issued for the wind; hail has to be quarter-sized to be severe. 

But this just shows that as the line moves into a favorable environment, like we have in Northwest Alabama, at least around places like Jasper, were looking at earlier, temperature about 70, dewpoint about 63 or 64 I think, these storms can quickly intensify. It isn't quite to the state line yet but should be within the next hour. 

10:04 PM - There is a severe thunderstorm warning farther into Southern MS that covers more counties than I care to try to type here in this quick note, but it carries a tag that the damage threat is considerable, with winds up to 70 mph expected in that storm. This squall line will remain dangerous as it moves into Alabama within the next 30-45 minutes. The line will probably make it to Huntsville around Midnight. 

10:09 - The line is actually working into the Northwest corner of Alabama already, but those storms are not severe at this point. The zone I'm watching more is just South of the Shoals, like Russelville, Red Bay, Hamilton, over to Double Springs and Jasper. When the line starts to get there, will be interesting to see how much these storms intensify. 

And you might have noticed there is a Tornado Warning that includes Jackson, MS. That's way out of our jurisdiction here, but you know, we looked at their sounding earlier. And the environment was favorable for that. 

10:16 - And we just got a Tornado Warning that includes Nettleton, MS just across the AL/MS state line, clips Amory and Fulton. People in Marion, Lamar, and Franklin Counties on the Alabama side need to be watching this storm in the line and be getting ready to take shelter if a warning is required later on the Alabama side. 

Remember that in a tornado warning, you get into a small central room on the lowest floor, away from any windows. If you have time, cover your body up, especially your head. 

10:21 - Usually QLCS tornadoes are short-lived, but it's still a good idea to watch the parts of a squall line that produce strong rotation like this. They can cycle back up and down as the line moves along. Sometimes you can tell the problem areas, other times it looks totally random. 

10:26 - By the way, for anybody over there across the MS state line, I'd encourage you to watch Matt Laubham's live stream (hope I spelled his name right from memory). I believe he was one of the meteorologists who narrowly escaped losing his job recently due to this idea a big company had about eliminating local meteorologists and replacing them with Weather Channel broadcasters. Fortunately his job and some ladies in the Huntsville market's jobs were saved because (I'm guessing) there was so much backlash over the idea. Anyway just trying to support the guy and his team, always thought they did a fine job over there when I had time to watch. 

10:34 - Ryan Hall is also covering this. 

10:36 - Emergency management has reported trees and power lines down, believe it was in Shannon, Mississippi. People in Marion County, AL especially need to be watching this and getting ready to go through their tornado safety plan. 

And I believe they just went under a severe thunderstorm warning. 

10:37 - Yes they did. I'm not going to do a new post for this one I don't think, will just keep adding notes here for now. But this is all of Marion and Lamar County, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. And I would advise people there to treat it just like a Tornado Warning. 

Get into a small central room on the lowest floor, away from windows. Make that in a sturdy house, not a mobile home. And if you have time, cover your body with something, especially protect your head and neck. 

10:42 - Here's a radar update. This is just the rain. The rotation has broadened out a lot, not showing it, but the winds still look fierce. And this storm has a history of damage. Kevin Laws from NWS Birmingham wrote in the text of the warning that a tornado could spin up quickly again in this storm and that even the damaging thunderstorm winds could produce significant property damage. I agree. I'd take this seriously. 

10:45 - James Spann has also started a live stream. He's as good as it gets. 

They'd upgraded part of Marion County to a Tornado Warning. Will start a new post for that. 

SEL0

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   Tornado Watch Number 10

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   910 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 

     Much of Alabama

     Western Florida Panhandle

     Southeast Louisiana

     Central and Southern Mississippi

     Southern Middle Tennessee

     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 910 PM

     until 400 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...

     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms will overspread the

   watch area through the early morning hours.  Very strong winds aloft

   ahead of the line will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and

   embedded tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles

   east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Gulfport MS to 25

   miles north of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch

   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...WW 9...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail

   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind

   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean

   storm motion vector 27035.

   ...Hart

WOUS64 KWNS 160309

   WOU0

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 10

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   910 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025

   TORNADO WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR THE

    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   ALC001-003-007-009-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-

   039-041-043-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-

   079-083-085-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-

   119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-161000-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.250216T0310Z-250216T1000Z/

   AL 

   .    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   AUTAUGA              BALDWIN             BIBB                

   BLOUNT               BUTLER              CALHOUN             

   CHEROKEE             CHILTON             CHOCTAW             

   CLARKE               CLAY                CLEBURNE            

   COLBERT              CONECUH             COOSA               

   COVINGTON            CRENSHAW            CULLMAN             

   DALLAS               DEKALB              ELMORE              

   ESCAMBIA             ETOWAH              FAYETTE             

   FRANKLIN             GREENE              HALE                

   JACKSON              JEFFERSON           LAMAR               

   LAUDERDALE           LAWRENCE            LIMESTONE           

   LOWNDES              MADISON             MARENGO             

   MARION               MARSHALL            MOBILE              

   MONROE               MONTGOMERY          MORGAN              

   PERRY                PICKENS             RANDOLPH            

   SHELBY               ST. CLAIR           SUMTER              

   TALLADEGA            TALLAPOOSA          TUSCALOOSA          

   WALKER               WASHINGTON          WILCOX              

   WINSTON              

   FLC033-091-113-161000-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.250216T0310Z-250216T1000Z/

   FL 

   .    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ESCAMBIA             OKALOOSA            SANTA ROSA          

   LAC033-037-063-091-103-105-117-125-161000-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.250216T0310Z-250216T1000Z/

   LA 

   .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

   EAST BATON ROUGE     EAST FELICIANA      LIVINGSTON          

   ST. HELENA           ST. TAMMANY         TANGIPAHOA          

   WASHINGTON           WEST FELICIANA      

   MSC001-005-007-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-

   047-049-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-

   089-091-095-099-101-103-105-109-111-113-121-123-127-129-131-141-

   147-153-155-157-159-161000-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.250216T0310Z-250216T1000Z/

   MS 

   .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ADAMS                AMITE               ATTALA              

   CHICKASAW            CHOCTAW             CLAIBORNE           

   CLARKE               CLAY                COPIAH              

   COVINGTON            FORREST             FRANKLIN            

   GEORGE               GREENE              HANCOCK             

   HARRISON             HINDS               ITAWAMBA            

   JACKSON              JASPER              JEFFERSON           

   JEFFERSON DAVIS      JONES               KEMPER              

   LAMAR                LAUDERDALE          LAWRENCE            

   LEAKE                LEE                 LINCOLN             

   LOWNDES              MADISON             MARION              

   MONROE               NESHOBA             NEWTON              

   NOXUBEE              OKTIBBEHA           PEARL RIVER         

   PERRY                PIKE                RANKIN              

   SCOTT                SIMPSON             SMITH               

   STONE                TISHOMINGO          WALTHALL            

   WAYNE                WEBSTER             WILKINSON           

   WINSTON              

   TNC051-103-127-161000-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.250216T0310Z-250216T1000Z/

   TN 

   .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   FRANKLIN             LINCOLN             MOORE               

   GMZ630-631-634-635-161000-

   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.250216T0310Z-250216T1000Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   NORTH MOBILE BAY 

   SOUTH MOBILE BAY 

   PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND 

   WESTERN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY 

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...

Mesoscale Discussion 0101

   

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0837 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

   Areas affected...Central Gulf States

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160237Z - 160330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will be issued across the central Gulf

   States by 0330z.

   DISCUSSION...Fast-moving upper trough is ejecting across eastern

   OK/TX and the associated cold front is surging through the lower MS

   Valley region, currently stretching from eastern AR into

   south-central TX. An expansive corridor of pre-frontal convection

   has developed ahead of the short wave from the lower OH Valley,

   southwest into central LA. Over the last hour or so, thunderstorm

   activity appears to be gradually sharpening across the lower MS

   Valley with at least two bands of strong/severe convection that will

   soon spread east of the MS River. Surface temperatures remain in the

   lower 70s across much of the warm sector immediately ahead of this

   activity, and mid 60s dew points have returned to central MS. While

   tornado activity has been somewhat sparse to this point, intense

   0-3km SRH warrants concern. Latest thinking is updrafts may continue

   to mature and longer-lived supercells are certainly possible, though

   an organized QLCS will be the primary storm mode. This MCS will

   advance across the remainder of the central Gulf States later

   tonight.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 02/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LIX...

   LAT...LON   30999162 35018822 34998491 30998843 30999162