Pretty Typical Summer Heat, Slightly Elevated Rain Chances Early Next Week

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 87, Low 69): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 85, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 86, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 88, Low 68): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

Independence Day (High 90, Low 69): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

Saturday (High 92, Low 70): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 89, Low 75): Partly to mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 88, Low 75): Partly to mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 87, Low 74): Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday/Thursday (High ~90, Low ~75): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Independence Day/Saturday (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in mid-70's): Partly to mostly sunny with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Lunes (Máxima 87, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 70): Mayormente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas numerosas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 86, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Jueves (Máxima 88, Mínima 68): Mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Sábado (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 89, Mínima 75): Parcialmente nublado. Posibilidad de numerosas lluvias o tormentas.

Lunes (Máxima 88, Mínima 75): Parcialmente nublado. Posibilidad de numerosas lluvias o tormentas.

Martes (Máxima 87, Mínima 74): Probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.

Miércoles/Jueves (Máxima ~91, Mínima ~75): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

Día de la Independencia/Sábado (Máximas entre 90 y 95, Mínimas alrededor de 75): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas.

NOTES:

Here are some guidelines for staying safe in rip currents. 

NOAA predicts this hurricane season will be more active than average due to warm ocean temperatures. We all know last year's was a doosie. 

Here is a list of significant weather events so far this year in Middle Tennessee. 

Gary England passed away recently, and here is his most famous coverage, of the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak. 

The Weatherbrains podcast recently interviewed Max Velocity, a guy who really knows what he is doing with modern weather broadcasting. 

The folks way up North (mainly in the Dakotas and into Canada) suffered a severe damaging wind event called a derecho along with several tornadoes lately. There were some fatalities, and three of them happened in New York state, which rarely has problems with tornadoes. 

Although he was not involved in meteorology, I just thought I'd take a moment to acknowledge that I thought Bill Moyers was a great guy. 

Here are some reminders about hurricane preparedness, which are better to review before the season heats up later. 

If you're headed down to the beach and want to keep up with rip currents and UV indices, here is an experimental page for that. 

DISCUSSION:

At 1:15 PM CDT, skies are partly cloudy in Cullman. The temperature is 86 degrees. The dewpoint-temperature is 73 degrees, making the relative humidity 66%. Winds are from the Southwest at 6 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.15 inches and steady. The Low temperature this morning was 68. 

It is mostly sunny in Jasper with a temperature of 88 degrees. The dewpoint is 73, making the relative humidity 62%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.13 inches and falling. The Low this morning was 68 degrees. 

The observations from Haleyville are not available. 

So let's look at Decatur. Where it is sunny and 90 degrees, with a dewpoint of 72, making the relative humidity 56%. Winds are West at 8 mph. Pressure is 30.12 inches/1019.2 millibars and falling. The Low this morning was 71. 

Gadsden is sunny and 85 degrees. Huntsville is partly cloudy and 88. Muscle Shoals is mostly cloudy and 88. Tupelo is partly cloudy and 89. Memphis is also partly cloudy and 89. Nashville has light rain, fog, and mist with a temperature of 75 at this hour. 

And we do have a pretty good cluster or two of showers and thunderstorms moving through Middle Tennessee. As you get down into Southern Tennessee and North Alabama, the coverage of any rain is a lot more isolated. 

And this is just typical summer convection that is up against the surface High pressure we have in place over the Southeast region as well as the Mid-Atlantic. 

Just trying to be thorough, the 7 AM CDT/12Z upper-air soundings from Birmingham, Nashville, and Jackson all show a typical setup for this time of year, with the air becoming marginally unstable even in the early morning hours, basically no wind shear. 

Some summer thunderstorms do get rowdier than others, and yesterday we had quarter-sized hail in Jackson County around Pigsah. Then we had a tree come down on County Road 174 in the Flat Rock Community. There were a few reports of trees down across the Tennessee line too. And most noticeable, last night a tree came down in Mountain Brook (down in Jefferson County) and fell on someone's home, causing an injury. That was along Redwood Street. 

Tomorrow we'll see a mix of sun and clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, about a 4-in-10 chance. For people who remember how to reduce fractions, that's a 2-in-5 chance. The High should be about 87-88 with a Low near 69. 

Looks like another 40% chance of rain on Monday, mix of sun and clouds, High in the 86-88 range, Low about 68-70. 

Then on Tuesday rain chances will increase to 50%, so a 50/50 of getting some rain or a thunderstorm then, mostly cloudy skies, a High in the mid-80's (about 85) and a Low near 70. 

That increase in rain chances by Tuesday will be the result of a cold front approaching the region. They don't really pass through and bring us any cooler air this time of year, and this one will be in the process of dissipating amidst all the High pressure in place in the Southeast region here on Wednesday. 

That will bring our rain chance back down to 30-40% for Wednesday and bring temperatures back to upper 80's for Highs, Lows in upper 60's. 

Not much residual moisture in the region Thursday, so will trim rain chance back to 20%, just a typical summer chance for an isolated shower or storm. The Highs should be in the upper 80's and Lows in the upper 60's. 

Basically the same for Friday, Independence Day, with Highs approaching 90, the Low approaching 70, only a 20% chance of rain. That's about as typical a summer day as you'll find around here. Again for people who remember some math, that's a 1-in-5 chance at a shower or thunderstorm interrupting firework plans at some point during the day for any given point. 

And then next Saturday looks like a mix of sun and clouds, only a 20% chance of rain again, a High of 90 or so, Low near 70. 

And that will continue into the next week, Sunday through Tuesday, looks like, if we peek out 10 days. Highs near 90 or so, Lows of 70 or so, about where we should be this time of year. 

The GFS is showing a tropical system of some kind forming and moving into Mobile and then Southern Mississippi here beyond seven days, but you can't really bank on scenarios like that. It is notorious for showing junk scenarios like that, especially as you get out to 7 days or beyond. It does this many times every summer, and these wild scenarios very rarely verify, or even come close to verifying. 

Having said that, some of our neighbors to the South do have some tropical action trying to get going, so early in the season. 

There is now a well-defined circulation with this Low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche. Those showers and thunderstorms are getting organized and could form a tropical depression at any time now. A Hurricane Hunter is in the process of investigating this. Heavy rains are already affecting Guatemala, and people in Southeastern Mexico should prepare for the possibility of tropical storm conditions later this weekend. 

Then way down there in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, things are trying to get organized with that broad area of Low pressure. Actually that Low is technically a few hundred miles South/Southwest of the Gulf. A tropical depression is expected to form this weekend, and heavy rains are likely over Central America and Southeastern Mexico from this system as well. 

Neither of these systems will affect the Gulf coast anywhere near Alabama. It's just something to mention in passing when our local weather is so quiet. 

Our local rainfall amounts should average up to about one inch over the next week. 

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