Thursday, March 2, 2023

Wind Warning

This will go into effect tomorrow morning. It is a dual threat. 




 This warning was issued for the threat of high winds in general that could do some minor damage and actually be somewhat dangerous. 




But that is for winds outside of specific storms or showers. Let's also remember that a squall line of storms is expected roughly between about daybreak and noon. And in that line, some storms may become severe. Whether you get a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning tomorrow, I would treat it about the same. Get into a small central room (or hallway) on the lowest floor of a sturdy house. If you can be out of a mobile home before this line gets to you, stay with someone else for a while (or even for the day since we are going to have so much high wind even outside of the storms), that is probably for the best, especially if you have a lot of trees around. 

And now I'm going to share a rare piece of advice. Nobody much is reading this blog anyway, or if they do, caring what I have to say. So what the hell . . . this is one of the rare times I would consider taking shelter in a car. It would be a last resort, but since the main threat here is sustained high winds even outside of storms, with only a lower threat of a tornado happening . . . if I lived in a trailer out in the country, no public shelter was open, nobody was being accommodating . . . I would get in the car and park in an open field away from any trees or anything that could fall on me if it blew down. Or suppose I was close to a store that was closed, I might park in that open parking lot. Because I think a vehicle is just a little bit safer from winds than a mobile home, at least if it's parked away from any trees that could fall. 

If I knew a tornado was coming, I might get out and into an unflooded culvert or ditch. But for the gradient winds or a severe thunderstorm warning, I think I would tomorrow, if I was in a last-resort situation. Instead of staying in the trailer, I'd get in the car and park somewhere away from the trees or anything that could easily go airborne and break the glass. 

Of course it is better to be in any sturdy building, even if it's a little restaurant or gas station, if that's all you can do, if there is a severe thunderstorm warning. 

There was a gravity wave event that produced strong gradient winds back in 2009. And I really liked J.B. Elliott's advice on James Spann's podcast back then. I am listening again because I do not remember exactly what he said he would do for high winds in a pinch, but I think he said something about parking the vehicle in a certain relation to the direction of the winds. With my luck lately, I'm confusing it with another episode. They did another one questioning whether a car or a ditch was a better option as a last resort tornado shelter, same year. J.B. had interesting thoughts on that too. But I think the comments I am remembering are from this show. Either way it was a good discussion. 

What is different about this event is that we have a threat for actual severe thunderstorms along with the high gradient winds. But this event from 2009 caused a good bit of damage and knocked out a lot of people's power. We probably will have a good bit of damage (at least to trees and power lines) and power outages tomorrow. So if you want to hear a calm scientific discussion of such things, I take you back to a golden age of podcasting. There are more podcasts now, but the quality has gone down. 

Wishing you safety tomorrow, but only casually, because I found out the relatives I was worried about from last night just fell asleep after deciding the tornado warning was not that dangerous after all. So I am tuckered out when it comes to caring about this stuff. Be safe if you please. Dance in the wind if that's more your style. If you get carried away by the winds or a tree falls on you, maybe somebody will get it on video, and it will go viral online. And you can enjoy it from the hospital, or in ghostly form I guess. 

7:40 PM - On a serious note, try to stay as safe as you can tomorrow. It is better if you can be in a sturdy house or other sturdy building and not in a mobile home, especially when that squall line is coming through, even if it does not try to produce any tornadoes. (And it might produce an isolated tornado or two, even with such weak instability, can't rule that out.) If you can spend the day in a relatively safe place from high winds, that is best. I did also find that old podcast where J.B. Elliott gave some thoughts about cars, mobile homes, and tornadoes. A guy from Kent State had come out with some research saying that a car was a little bit safer than a mobile home as a last resort shelter, and might be better than getting in a ditch. I miss hearing from him sometimes, very thoughtful man. 

We do have ongoing flooding issues, so tomorrow is probably not a day you want to try getting into a ditch or a culvert unless you have to. I wish more common people were able to plan ahead and get to good shelter for severe weather events. Maybe it has improved since 2011. Sometimes I think it has, other times I get disgusted and feel like we've gone backwards in some ways. 

8:24 - I found the official writeup about this event. Apparently only the Huntsville office thought it was worth making a page for, did not find anything from Birmingham or Nashville, though Nashville with have a minimal tornado (rated E/F-0) in Coffee County in that event, which did not injure anyone. It was April 13, 2009.   

One interesting thing I did find was the Storm Prediction Center's archive of this event. If you look at the severe weather outlooks leading up to and during the day of this event, it looked worse than tomorrow's overall. There was no such thing as an "enhanced" risk back then (only three categories - slight, moderate, and high - the enhanced and marginal categories were added a few years later), but if you look at some of the percentages for specific hazards, there are some similarities with tomorrow's event. And there are some differences which make tomorrow's event not look all that bad by comparison. We'll see how it plays out. The way I'm feeling right now is that while it is worth taking seriously, we've been through a lot worse weather over the years. 

I do not have the energy to do a forecast tonight, but just looking at things really quick, will give you the highlights. 

The weekend looks great, plenty of sunshine, Highs about 65-70 range, Lows down around 40 or so. 

And it does not look windy after tomorrow, by the way.

Monday and Tuesday the High should be in the lower 70's, Low rebounding into upper 40's for Sunday night and then to upper 50's for Monday night, because on Tuesday, enough moisture returns to bring back a chance for at least isolated showers. Monday should be dry, just a few more clouds than over the weekend. 

And rest of the week looks like scattered rain chances each day, mix of sun and clouds, Highs dropping back into 60's. 

There are no signs of severe weather around here next week. So  let's get through this thing safely tomorrow, and then we catch a break, weather looks pretty benign for a while. 


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1245 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023


ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-031100-

/O.UPG.KHUN.WI.Y.0009.230303T0600Z-230304T0300Z/

/O.NEW.KHUN.HW.W.0001.230303T1200Z-230304T0000Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-

Including the cities of Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield,

Tuscumbia, Russellville, Red Bay, Moulton, Town Creek, Athens,

Huntsville, Decatur, Albertville, Boaz, Guntersville, Arab,

Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Rainsville, Cullman, Lynchburg,

Fayetteville, Winchester, Sewanee, Decherd, Estill Springs,

and Cowan

1245 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023


...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...


* WHAT...South to southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 50

  to 60 mph expected.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest

  Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.


* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be

  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The High Wind Warning upgrades the previous

  Wind Advisory.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around

trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of

your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if

you must drive.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR

642 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023


ARZ028-MOZ115-MSZ001>006-008-009-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-

088>092-031200-

/O.CON.KMEG.HW.W.0001.230303T1200Z-230304T0000Z/

/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0009.230303T0600Z-230303T1200Z/

Mississippi-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-

Tishomingo-Tate-Prentiss-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-

Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison-

Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-

Including the cities of Blytheville, Caruthersville, Southaven,

Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka,

Senatobia, Booneville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden,

Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN,

Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington,

Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville,

Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer,

and Savannah

642 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023


...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM

CST FRIDAY...

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST

FRIDAY...


* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph

  with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Wind Advisory,

  southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.


* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi,

  Southeast Missouri and West Tennessee.


* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 6 AM to 6 PM CST

  Friday. For the Wind Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 AM

  CST Friday.


* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be

  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around

trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of

your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if

you must drive.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Morristown TN

334 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023


TNZ081>086-098>101-030900-

/O.UPG.KMRX.HW.A.0005.230303T1200Z-230304T0600Z/

/O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0005.230303T1200Z-230304T0300Z/

Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-

Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-

Including the cities of Cagle, Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak,

Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton,

Dayton, Evensville, Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City,

Big Spring, Athens, Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater,

Madisonville, Bullet Creek, South Pittsburg, Haletown (Guild),

Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell, Powells Crossroads, Monteagle,

Chattanooga, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, Cleveland, Tasso,

Conasauga, Archville, Benton, Parksville, and Reliance

334 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 /234 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023/


...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 10 PM

EST /9 PM CST/ FRIDAY...


* WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Friday.


* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be

  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The saturated ground will make conditions

  more susceptible to down trees.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around

trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of

your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if

you must drive.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Nashville TN

209 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023


TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-030900-

/O.UPG.KOHX.WI.Y.0008.230303T0900Z-230304T0600Z/

/O.NEW.KOHX.HW.W.0001.230303T1200Z-230304T0000Z/

Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-

Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-

Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-

Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-

Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-

Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,

Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,

Byrdstown, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville,

McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville,

Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage,

Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown,

Allardt, Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin,

Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne,

Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma,

Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton,

Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski

209 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023


...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...


* WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...All of Middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.


* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be

  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will ramp up starting around 3 am

  CST. With grounds already wet, some trees will come down much

  easier leading to power outages. Be sure to fully charge cell

  phones tonight so you will be able reliably receive any

  additional Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warnings that may be

  issued on Friday. Winds will begin to relax from west to east

  starting around sunset Friday evening.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around

trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of

your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if

you must drive.


&&


$$


27


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