Friday, June 2, 2023

Tropical Storm Arlene




 So this tropical depression has indeed strengthened to a tropical storm, and is expected to slowly weaken as it moves generally toward Western Cuba over the weekend into early next week. This system has thrown us a curve by strengthening and changing track, so no major impacts are expected for the Florida Peninsula after all, not even the higher rainfall amounts that were estimated a few days ago. As the core of the system should remain well offshore from there. Of course they are having a few showers and thunderstorms from the outer bands. But that happens with any tropical cyclone that is nearby enough. Folks in Western Cuba might want to watch this thing, but by the time it gets there, it is probably going to be at minimal tropical depression strength or even in a a dissipating stage. Up here in North Alabama or Southern Middle Tennessee, the weather remains boring summer stuff. Which I don't mind after the active spring. Weather here definitely has variety.

107 

WTNT32 KNHC 021738 CCA

TCPAT2


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Arlene Special Advisory Number   5...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023

100 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023


Corrected wording in Hazards Affecting Land section


...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED

INTO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...



SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.7N 86.2W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA

ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was

located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Arlene is 

moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is 

expected to increase slightly through tonight.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 

with higher gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it 

is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

northeast of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air 

Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher

amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions

of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.  This rainfall is not

directly related to Tropical Storm Arlene.  Regardless, the heavy

rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream

flooding impacts.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado



000

WTCA42 TJSJ 021740

TCPSP2


BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Arlene Advertencia Especial Número 5

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL022023

Traducción Revisada por el SNM San Juan PR

100 PM CDT viernes 02 de junio de 2023


...CAZADORES DE HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AÉREA INDICAN QUE LA 

DEPRESIÓN SE HA FORTALECIDO A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE...



RESUMEN DE LA 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...26.7N 86.2O

ALREDEDOR DE 265 MI...425 KM AL OESTE DE FT. MYERS FLORIDA

ALREDEDOR DE 340 MI...550 KM AL NOROESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...SUR O 175 GRADOS A 5 MPH...7 KM/H

PRESIÓN MÍNIMA CENTRAL...1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A la 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 

Arlene estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 26.7 Norte, longitud 

86.2 Oeste. Arlene se está moviendo hacia el sur a cerca de 5 mph 

(7 km/h) y se espera que este movimiento aumente ligeramente durante

esta noche.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 40 mph (65 

km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera que Arlene se debilite esta 

noche, y se pronostica que se convierta en un remanente de baja el 

sábado.


Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 70 

millas (110 km) al noreste del centro.


La presión central mínima estimada basada en los datos de los 

Cazadores de Huracanes de la Fuerza Aérea es de 1002 mb (29.59 

pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

LLUVIAS: Cantidades de lluvia de 1 a 2 pulgadas con cantidades más 

altas localizadas de hasta 5 pulgadas son posibles hasta el sábado 

en sectores del centro y sur de la Península de Florida. Esta lluvia 

no está directamente relacionada con la Tormenta Tropical Arlene. 

Independientemente, las fuertes lluvias podrían resultar en impactos 

aislados de inundaciones repentinas, urbanas y de pequeños 

riachuelos.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 400 PM CDT.


$$

Pronosticador Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado




000

WTNT42 KNHC 021724

TCDAT2


Tropical Storm Arlene Special Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023

100 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023


Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the 

depression has strengthened into a tropical storm.  On the last leg 

of the current mission, the aircraft found maximum 925 

mb flight-level winds of around 50 kt and SFMR surface winds of 

around 35 kt.  Based on these data, Tropical Depression Two has 

been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene with estimated peak winds of 

35 kt.  


Although the storm has strengthened slightly, we still expect 

Arlene to weaken soon due to increasing wind shear and dry air, and 

no change has been made to the forecast.  The next forecast will be 

issued at the normal time at 4 pm CDT.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  02/1800Z 26.7N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  03/0000Z 25.6N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  03/1200Z 24.2N  85.8W   25 KT  30 MPH

 36H  04/0000Z 23.2N  84.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado


No comments:

Post a Comment

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST: Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Most...