Here is a Spanish version of advisories on this major hurricane from the Government of Mexico. Can be downloaded as a PDF file. Not going to copy/paste the text because they have it set up as more of a table of information, would not look right as plain text.
Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Offshore Waters Forecast for the E Pacific within 250 nm of
Mexico
Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.
PMZ014-190430-
Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas within 350 nm offshore N of
20N-
924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TODAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. N of 22N, NE to E winds
15 to 20 kt, becoming E 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. S of 22N,
NE to E winds 35 to 40 kt, increasing to 45 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in SE swell. Period 14 seconds.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 22N, E winds
35 to 40 kt, increasing to 45 to 50 kt late. S of 22N,
NE to E winds 65 to 85 kt, becoming E to SE 90 to 110 kt late.
Seas 22 to 34 ft in SE swell. Period 15 seconds.
Numerous squalls and thunderstorms.
.SAT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 22N, SE winds 85 to
105 kt. S of 22N, S to SW winds 85 to 105 kt, becoming SW 40 to
50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 to 36 ft in S swell. Period
15 seconds. Numerous squalls and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 22N, S to
SW winds 50 to 55 kt, diminishing to 30 to 35 kt late.
S of 22N, SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft in W
swell, subsiding to 17 to 26 ft in W to NW swell late.
Period 14 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
.SUN...N of 22N, SW winds 25 to 30 kt. S of 22N, SW winds 25 to
30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
18 ft in NW swell. Period 12 seconds.
.SUN NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in NW
swell. Period 12 seconds.
.MON...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NW to N swell.
Period 11 seconds.
.MON NIGHT...NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW
swell. Period 14 seconds.
.TUE...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Period
14 seconds.
$$
Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Offshore Waters Forecast for the E Pacific within 250 nm of
Mexico
Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.
PMZ016-190430-
From 17N to 20N Between 110W and 115W including the
Revillagigedo Islands-
924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TODAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS. E of 113W, NE to E winds 95 to
115 kt, becoming S 105 to 125 kt in the afternoon. W of 113W, N
winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming NW to N 40 to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 to 35 ft in E to SE swell. Period 15 seconds. Numerous
squalls and thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E of 113W, S to SW
winds 95 to 115 kt, diminishing to 45 to 55 kt late. W
of 113W, NW winds 70 to 90 kt, becoming W 45 to 55 kt late. Seas
21 to 32 ft in NW to N swell. Period 14 seconds. Numerous squalls
and thunderstorms.
.SAT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SW to W winds 30 to
35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft in NW to N swell. Period 12 seconds.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT...SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in NW
to N swell. Period 12 seconds.
.SUN...SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NW to N
swell. Period 12 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable
winds less than 5 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Period
12 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
.MON...NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell.
Period 14 seconds.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell.
Period 14 seconds.
.TUE...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Period
13 seconds.
$$
Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Offshore Waters Forecast for the E Pacific within 250 nm of
Mexico
Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.
PMZ013-190430-
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro within 250 nm offshore-
924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TODAY...Within 60 nm of shore, variable winds less than 5 kt,
becoming SE to S 10 kt. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Seas 7 to 10 ft in SE to S swell. Period 14 seconds.
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Within 60 nm of
shore, W winds 10 kt, becoming NE 15 to 20 kt late. Elsewhere, N
to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late. Seas 9
to 14 ft in SE swell. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
.SAT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Within 60 nm of
shore, E winds 30 to 35 kt, increasing to 40 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 35 to 40 kt, increasing to
60 to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 20 ft in SE swell,
building to 17 to 26 ft in SE swell in the afternoon. Period
15 seconds. Numerous squalls and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Within 60 nm of
shore, E to SE winds 50 to 60 kt, becoming SE to S 65 to 85 kt
late. Elsewhere, N winds 70 to 90 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft
in SE swell. Period 15 seconds. Numerous squalls and
thunderstorms..
.SUN...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Within 60 nm of shore, S
to SW winds 45 to 55 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, W to NW winds 70 to 80 kt, becoming W
35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 to 28 ft in E to SE swell,
subsiding to 13 to 20 ft in N swell in the afternoon. Period
14 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT...SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming SW 15 to 20 kt
late. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NW to N swell. Period 10 seconds.
.MON...SW to W winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable
winds less than 5 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell. Period
10 seconds.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell.
Period 15 seconds.
.TUE...NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Period
15 seconds.
$$
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 181450
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023
...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 111.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.
The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Baja
California peninsula from north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada.
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino northward and from Loreto northward
and from north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the California/Mexico
border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line and for Catalina
Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula from Loreto southward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Loreto
* Mainland Mexico north of Huatabampito
* Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border
* California/Mexico border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line
* Catalina Island
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of
Hilary.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.4 West. Hilary is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today and tonight, followed by a
faster motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach
southern California by Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but
Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before
it reaches southern California.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday
and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California
and southern Nevada. Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible.
Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane
watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area by late today, and are possible within the
watch area in Mexico on Saturday and in southern California
beginning Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 181450
TCMEP4
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.1W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
638
WTPZ44 KNHC 181451
TCDEP4
Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023
After an impressive 70-kt increase in winds over the past 24 hours,
Hilary's intensity has leveled off. Satellite data indicate that
Hilary remains an impressive major hurricane with a 15-20 n mi
diameter eye and symmetric convective cloud pattern surrounding that
feature. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates
support holding the initial intensity steady at 125 kt. Microwave
data is showing some signs of a double eyewall structure, which is
quite common in strong hurricanes like Hilary. Hilary is quite
large with its tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 250 n mi
from the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to
investigate the hurricane later today, and the data they collect
will provide a better assessment of the system's strength and
structure.
Hilary has turned to the northwest with the initial motion estimated
to be 305/9 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a
steady increase in forward speed is expected later today and through
the weekend as the system is steered by the flow between a strong
subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to
upper-level low off the central California coast. This pattern
should take the core of Hilary near the central Baja California
Peninsula coast Saturday night and then inland over southern
California Sunday night. The models are in fairly good agreement,
and little change was made to the previous track forecast. It
should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well
ahead of the center.
Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected today, but
Hilary is expected to begin weakening late tonight as it moves over
progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing
shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA
and IVCN models and is largely an update of the previous one.
Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of southern California. This is the first time NHC has
issued a watch for that region. Supplemental soundings (weather
balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service
offices across the western U.S. This effort is highly appreciated
as the data should help provide a better assessment of the
environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary could produce areas of
flash flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja
California Peninsula late tonight through late Sunday. Rainfall
impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are
expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding is expected, with the potential for rare and dangerous
impacts.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula on Sunday and are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Sunday in portions of
southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.
4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells
will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of the Baja
California Peninsula later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 111.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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