Friday, August 18, 2023

Hurricane Warning for Parts of Baja California



 

Here is a Spanish version of advisories on this major hurricane from the Government of Mexico. Can be downloaded as a PDF file. Not going to copy/paste the text because they have it set up as more of a table of information, would not look right as plain text. 

Offshore Waters Forecast

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL

924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


Offshore Waters Forecast for the E Pacific within 250 nm of

Mexico


Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average

height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be

more than twice the significant wave height.


PMZ014-190430-

Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas within 350 nm offshore N of

20N-

924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


...HURRICANE WARNING...


.TODAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. N of 22N, NE to E winds

15 to 20 kt, becoming E 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. S of 22N,

NE to E winds 35 to 40 kt, increasing to 45 to 50 kt in the

afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in SE swell. Period 14 seconds.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

.TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 22N, E winds

35 to 40 kt, increasing to 45 to 50 kt late. S of 22N,

NE to E winds 65 to 85 kt, becoming E to SE 90 to 110 kt late.

Seas 22 to 34 ft in SE swell. Period 15 seconds.

Numerous squalls and thunderstorms.

.SAT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 22N, SE winds 85 to

105 kt. S of 22N, S to SW winds 85 to 105 kt, becoming SW 40 to

50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 to 36 ft in S swell. Period

15 seconds. Numerous squalls and thunderstorms.

.SAT NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N of 22N, S to

SW winds 50 to 55 kt, diminishing to 30 to 35 kt late.

S of 22N, SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft in W

swell, subsiding to 17 to 26 ft in W to NW swell late.

Period 14 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

.SUN...N of 22N, SW winds 25 to 30 kt. S of 22N, SW winds 25 to

30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to

18 ft in NW swell. Period 12 seconds.

.SUN NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in NW

swell. Period 12 seconds.

.MON...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NW to N swell.

Period 11 seconds.

.MON NIGHT...NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW

swell. Period 14 seconds.

.TUE...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Period

14 seconds.


$$

Offshore Waters Forecast

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL

924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


Offshore Waters Forecast for the E Pacific within 250 nm of

Mexico


Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average

height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be

more than twice the significant wave height.


PMZ016-190430-

From 17N to 20N Between 110W and 115W including the

Revillagigedo Islands-

924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


...HURRICANE WARNING...


.TODAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS. E of 113W, NE to E winds 95 to

115 kt, becoming S 105 to 125 kt in the afternoon. W of 113W, N

winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming NW to N 40 to 50 kt in the afternoon.

Seas 23 to 35 ft in E to SE swell. Period 15 seconds. Numerous

squalls and thunderstorms.

.TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E of 113W, S to SW

winds 95 to 115 kt, diminishing to 45 to 55 kt late. W

of 113W, NW winds 70 to 90 kt, becoming W 45 to 55 kt late. Seas

21 to 32 ft in NW to N swell. Period 14 seconds. Numerous squalls

and thunderstorms.

.SAT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SW to W winds 30 to

35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft in NW to N swell. Period 12 seconds.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

.SAT NIGHT...SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in NW

to N swell. Period 12 seconds.

.SUN...SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NW to N

swell. Period 12 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable

winds less than 5 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Period

12 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

.MON...NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell.

Period 14 seconds.

.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell.

Period 14 seconds.

.TUE...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Period

13 seconds.


$$

Offshore Waters Forecast

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL

924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


Offshore Waters Forecast for the E Pacific within 250 nm of

Mexico


Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average

height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be

more than twice the significant wave height.


PMZ013-190430-

Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro within 250 nm offshore-

924 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


...HURRICANE WARNING...


.TODAY...Within 60 nm of shore, variable winds less than 5 kt,

becoming SE to S 10 kt. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt.

Seas 7 to 10 ft in SE to S swell. Period 14 seconds.

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Within 60 nm of

shore, W winds 10 kt, becoming NE 15 to 20 kt late. Elsewhere, N

to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late. Seas 9

to 14 ft in SE swell. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and

thunderstorms.

.SAT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Within 60 nm of

shore, E winds 30 to 35 kt, increasing to 40 to 45 kt in the

afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 35 to 40 kt, increasing to

60 to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 20 ft in SE swell,

building to 17 to 26 ft in SE swell in the afternoon. Period

15 seconds. Numerous squalls and thunderstorms.

.SAT NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Within 60 nm of

shore, E to SE winds 50 to 60 kt, becoming SE to S 65 to 85 kt

late. Elsewhere, N winds 70 to 90 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft

in SE swell. Period 15 seconds. Numerous squalls and

thunderstorms..

.SUN...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Within 60 nm of shore, S

to SW winds 45 to 55 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt in the

afternoon. Elsewhere, W to NW winds 70 to 80 kt, becoming W

35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 to 28 ft in E to SE swell,

subsiding to 13 to 20 ft in N swell in the afternoon. Period

14 seconds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

.SUN NIGHT...SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming SW 15 to 20 kt

late. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NW to N swell. Period 10 seconds.

.MON...SW to W winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable

winds less than 5 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell. Period

10 seconds.

.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell.

Period 15 seconds.

.TUE...NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Period

15 seconds.


$$


000

WTPZ34 KNHC 181450

TCPEP4


BULLETIN

Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023

900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023


...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND

TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...



SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.9N 111.4W

ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND

ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the 

Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. 


The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Baja 

California peninsula from north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada.


The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for 

mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino northward and from Loreto northward 

and from north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border.


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the California/Mexico 

border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line and for Catalina 

Island. 


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Baja California peninsula north of Punta Eugenia to Ensenada


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward

* Baja California peninsula from Loreto southward


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Baja California peninsula north of Loreto

* Mainland Mexico north of Huatabampito

* Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border

* California/Mexico border to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line

* Catalina Island


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of 

Hilary.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hilary was located

near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.4 West. Hilary is moving

toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the

north-northwest is expected today and tonight, followed by a 

faster motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday.  On the 

forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west 

coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach 

southern California by Sunday night.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the

next day or so.  Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but

Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast

of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.  Hilary

is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before

it reaches southern California.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles

(465 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.


RAINFALL:  Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6

inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across

portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.

Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.


Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the

Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday

and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts

of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California

and southern Nevada. Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible.

Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall

totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.


WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane 

watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected 

within the warning area by late today, and are possible within the 

watch area in Mexico on Saturday and in southern California 

beginning Sunday.


STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal

flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near

where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or

east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.


SURF:  Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the

coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over

the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi


000

WTPZ24 KNHC 181450

TCMEP4


HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023

1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT.......250NE 170SE  90SW 150NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z

AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.1W


FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...250NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.


FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.

50 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...240NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.


FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.


FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.


FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.

34 KT...200NE 180SE  90SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW  40NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.4W


INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z


NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z


$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


638 

WTPZ44 KNHC 181451

TCDEP4


Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023

900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023


After an impressive 70-kt increase in winds over the past 24 hours,

Hilary's intensity has leveled off.  Satellite data indicate that

Hilary remains an impressive major hurricane with a 15-20 n mi

diameter eye and symmetric convective cloud pattern surrounding that

feature.  A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates

support holding the initial intensity steady at 125 kt.  Microwave

data is showing some signs of a double eyewall structure, which is

quite common in strong hurricanes like Hilary.  Hilary is quite

large with its tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 250 n mi

from the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to

investigate the hurricane later today, and the data they collect

will provide a better assessment of the system's strength and

structure.


Hilary has turned to the northwest with the initial motion estimated 

to be 305/9 kt.  A general north-northwest to north motion with a 

steady increase in forward speed is expected later today and through 

the weekend as the system is steered by the flow between a strong 

subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to 

upper-level low off the central California coast.  This pattern 

should take the core of Hilary near the central Baja California 

Peninsula coast Saturday night and then inland over southern 

California Sunday night.  The models are in fairly good agreement, 

and little change was made to the previous track forecast.  It 

should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well 

ahead of the center.


Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected today, but

Hilary is expected to begin weakening late tonight as it moves over

progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing

shear and drier air.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA

and IVCN models and is largely an update of the previous one.


Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for

portions of southern California.  This is the first time NHC has

issued a watch for that region.  Supplemental soundings (weather

balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service

offices across the western U.S.  This effort is highly appreciated

as the data should help provide a better assessment of the

environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary could produce areas of

flash flooding and result in landslides over portions of the Baja

California Peninsula late tonight through late Sunday.  Rainfall

impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are

expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo

flooding is expected, with the potential for rare and dangerous

impacts.


2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the

hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja

California Peninsula on Sunday and are possible in the Hurricane

Watch area.


3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Sunday in portions of

southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.


4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of

southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula.  These swells

will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of the Baja

California Peninsula later this weekend.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  18/1500Z 17.9N 111.4W  125 KT 145 MPH

 12H  19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W  130 KT 150 MPH

 24H  19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

 60H  21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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