Saturday, September 16, 2023

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee



 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 161453

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023


...LEE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN 

PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...43.5N 66.2W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


Environment Canada has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a

Tropical Storm Warning for Prince Edward Island, Magdalen Islands,

and portions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.


The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Westport, RI 

to Portsmouth, NH, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Portsmouth northward to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,

including Grand Manan Island

* All of Nova Scotia

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case later today.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.


For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee

was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 66.2 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35

km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue, and the

center of Lee is forecast to make landfall near or just east of 

the U.S./Canada border this afternoon.  Lee is then expected to 

turn toward the northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight 

and Sunday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Lee is expected to be at or just below hurricane strength

when it makes landfall later today.  Weakening is forecast

tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390

miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a 

gust to 93 mph (150 km/h) was recently reported on Grand Manan 

Island in New Brunswick, Canada.  An observation in Eastport, 

Maine, recently reported 39 mph (63 km/h) sustained winds with a 

gust to 50 mph (81 km/h).  An observation in Lunenburg in Nova 

Scotia reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (81 km/h) and a wind 

gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch

areas in Atlantic Canada later today.  Tropical storm conditions

are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and

will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today

and tonight.  The strong winds are leading to downed trees

and power outages.  Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to 

continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.


SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the

Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic

Canada.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.


RAINFALL:  Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall 

amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern 

Massachusetts,  eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New 

Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream 

flooding.


STORM SURGE:  Water levels remain elevated along the New England 

Coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.


A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the

wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi


000

WTNT43 KNHC 161454

TCDAT3


Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023


The core of Lee is very near the west coast of Nova Scotia.  Data 

from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure 

has been steady at 965 mb, but the surface winds are down a little 

to 65 kt.  Dropsonde data indicate that winds are notably stronger 

just off the surface, so significant wind gusts are likely in areas 

of heavy rain and over elevated terrain near the coast.  In fact, an 

observation on Grand Manan Island in New Brunswick, Canada, recently 

recorded a wind gust of 81 kt (150 km/h).  Radar data from New 

England and Nova Scotia show bands of heavy rain onshore of portions 

of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada.  


Lee continues to accelerate northward and has jogged to the 

left this morning.  The core of the cyclone will likely brush the 

western portion of Nova Scotia during the next couple of hours and 

then move inland near or just east of the U.S./Canada border this 

afternoon.  After landfall, a faster northeastward motion is 

expected as a trough approaches the system, which should take Lee 

across portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.


Little change in strength is expected before landfall, and the core 

winds are likely to come ashore in far down east Maine and western 

portions of New Brunswick.  Steady weakening is expected after Lee 

moves inland, and the system is expected to dissipate by late 

Monday.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of southern New

Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch

areas.  Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are

occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic

Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical

Storm Warning areas.  The strong winds are already leading to downed

trees and power outages.


2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small 

stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern 

Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia today.


3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue

to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the

Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the

Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the

weekend.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  16/1500Z 43.5N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  17/0000Z 45.7N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  17/1200Z 48.3N  62.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  18/0000Z 50.8N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  18/1200Z 53.0N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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