000
WTNT35 KNHC 161455
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 46.2W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 46.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a general northwest or north-northwest motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
system could become a hurricane early next week.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 161457
TCPSP5
BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Quince Advertencia Número 5
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL152023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
1100 AM AST sábado 16 de septiembre de 2023
...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL SE FORTALEZCA ESTE FIN DE
SEMANA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...19.7N 46.2O
ALREDEDOR DE 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 330 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Quince estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 19.7 norte, longitud
46.2 oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a
cerca de 18 mph (30 km/h), y se espera que un movimiento general en
el noroeste o nor-noroeste continúe durante los próximos días.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento durante los
próximos días, y el sistema podría convertirse en un huracán a
principios de la próxima semana.
La presión central mínima estimada del avión Cazahuracanes de la
NOAA es de 1006 milibares (29.71 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Ninguno
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Hogsett/Bucci
000
WTNT45 KNHC 161457
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023
The tropical depression has not changed much this morning. The
center remains poorly defined, and visible satellite imagery
indicates a broad region of low- and mid-level rotation persisting
over a large area. Most of the deep convection is occurring in the
northern semicircle of the broad circulation. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB were 25 kt and 35 kt, respectively, and
are similar to the objective Dvorak estimates. Based on the
disorganized structure and the current intensity estimates, the
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. A late arriving ASCAT
pass suggests that this estimate may be a bit generous.
Since the center of circulation is broad, the initial motion is
somewhat uncertain and estimated at 330/16 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple days as the depression
moves along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to
the northeast of the system. Track guidance, including global and
regional hurricane models, is in general agreement that the system
will continue on a northwestward trajectory for the next several
days. After 72 hours, the track forecast uncertainty increases
somewhat as the system will begin to interact with a deep-layer
trough. This trough interaction is expected to induce a more
poleward shift in the track and eventually recurve the system toward
the northeast by 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
prior forecast and in agreement with the consensus aids, TVCN and
HCCA.
The system is currently in a favorable environment for
intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures expected to persist during the next several days.
However, the timing of intensification will depend on how quickly
the system is able to consolidate into a more compact structure. The
current intensity forecast assumes that it will take 24-36 hours for
this to happen, with the system expected to become a hurricane in 48
hours. The current forecast reaches 95 kt by 72 h, although some of
the regional hurricane models, including HWRF and HMON, indicate a
more rapid intensification. ECMWF-SHIPS guidance continues to
indicate a greater than a 40 percent chance of rapid intensification
in the next 72 hours. By mid-week, as the system recurves to the
northeast, it is expected to gradually weaken as southwesterly shear
increases. The NHC forecast is lower than the regional model
guidance and is similar to both the prior forecast and HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 23.2N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 24.7N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 26.2N 52.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 27.5N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 28.9N 56.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 32.8N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 37.0N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci
.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment