Saturday, September 16, 2023

Tropical Depression 15

 

000

WTNT35 KNHC 161455

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 46.2W

ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen

was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 46.2 West. The

depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30

km/h), and a general northwest or north-northwest motion is

expected to continue for the next few days.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the 

system could become a hurricane early next week.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.


$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci


000

WTCA45 TJSJ 161457

TCPSP5


BOLETÍN

Depresión Tropical Quince Advertencia Número  5

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL152023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR 

1100 AM AST sábado 16 de septiembre de 2023


...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL SE FORTALEZCA ESTE FIN DE 

SEMANA...


RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...19.7N 46.2O

ALREDEDOR DE 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 330 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical 

Quince estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 19.7 norte, longitud 

46.2 oeste.  La depresión se está moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a 

cerca de 18 mph (30 km/h), y se espera que un movimiento general en 

el noroeste o nor-noroeste continúe durante los próximos días.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con 

ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento durante los 

próximos días, y el sistema podría convertirse en un huracán a 

principios de la próxima semana.


La presión central mínima estimada del avión Cazahuracanes de la 

NOAA es de 1006 milibares (29.71 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Ninguno



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST.


$$

Pronosticador Hogsett/Bucci


000

WTNT45 KNHC 161457

TCDAT5


Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023


The tropical depression has not changed much this morning. The 

center remains poorly defined, and visible satellite imagery 

indicates a broad region of low- and mid-level rotation persisting 

over a large area. Most of the deep convection is occurring in the 

northern semicircle of the broad circulation. Subjective Dvorak 

estimates from SAB and TAFB were 25 kt and 35 kt, respectively, and 

are similar to the objective Dvorak estimates. Based on the 

disorganized structure and the current intensity estimates, the 

intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. A late arriving ASCAT 

pass suggests that this estimate may be a bit generous.  


Since the center of circulation is broad, the initial motion is 

somewhat uncertain and estimated at 330/16 kt. This general motion 

is expected to continue for the next couple days as the depression 

moves along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to 

the northeast of the system. Track guidance, including global and 

regional hurricane models, is in general agreement that the system 

will continue on a northwestward trajectory for the next several 

days. After 72 hours, the track forecast uncertainty increases 

somewhat as the system will begin to interact with a deep-layer 

trough. This trough interaction is expected to induce a more 

poleward shift in the track and eventually recurve the system toward 

the northeast by 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the 

prior forecast and in agreement with the consensus aids, TVCN and 

HCCA. 


The system is currently in a favorable environment for 

intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface 

temperatures expected to persist during the next several days. 

However, the timing of intensification will depend on how quickly 

the system is able to consolidate into a more compact structure. The 

current intensity forecast assumes that it will take 24-36 hours for 

this to happen, with the system expected to become a hurricane in 48 

hours. The current forecast reaches 95 kt by 72 h, although some of 

the regional hurricane models, including HWRF and HMON, indicate a 

more rapid intensification. ECMWF-SHIPS guidance continues to 

indicate a greater than a 40 percent chance of rapid intensification 

in the next 72 hours. By mid-week, as the system recurves to the 

northeast, it is expected to gradually weaken as southwesterly shear 

increases. The NHC forecast is lower than the regional model 

guidance and is similar to both the prior forecast and HCCA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  16/1500Z 19.7N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  17/0000Z 21.3N  47.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  17/1200Z 23.2N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  18/0000Z 24.7N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  18/1200Z 26.2N  52.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 60H  19/0000Z 27.5N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  19/1200Z 28.9N  56.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  20/1200Z 32.8N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  21/1200Z 37.0N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH


$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci

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