Friday, March 15, 2024

Mesoscale Discussion from SPC

 Interesting, they even mention considering issuing a watch depending on how things trend with that part of the squall line (QLCS).

Mesoscale Discussion 0254

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0336 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of northern MS/AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150836Z - 151030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief

   tornado may persist through the early morning.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing early this morning

   from eastern/middle TN toward the ArkLaTex region. In general, the

   QLCS is oriented southwest-to-northeast, roughly parallel to the

   deep-layer shear vectors, with a tendency for outflow to undercut

   the strongest convection. However, a portion of the QLCS across

   northern MS has taken on a more north-south orientation, with some

   increase in storm organization noted, including some low-level

   rotation where this line segment is intersecting the more east-west

   oriented outflow. 

   If this line segment can maintain its current orientation and

   organization as it moves eastward, then some threat for locally

   damaging gusts will spread eastward into northeast MS and northern

   AL. A brief line-embedded tornado also cannot be ruled out where

   this line segment intersects the outflow. Given the relatively

   narrow corridor of somewhat more favorable severe threat and

   potential for outflow to keep sagging southward, the need for watch

   issuance is uncertain at this time.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33908927 34198894 34398873 34588867 34638777 34688718

               34678680 34508658 34138658 33958670 33838718 33778798

               33768863 33918938 33908927 

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